ACT in the New Zealand elections 2008

In the post below is a list of electorates in New Zealand, the MP who won the seat and the margin of votes in which the candidate won the seat.

While I am here in Italy, I certainly have a bit of time to put some effort into this blog so I thought about how ACT can get at least 10% in the next election which will probably give them the balance of power hopefully with their logical ally and effective cousin National .

Now this is all hypothetical and it is based on the previous election in which Labour came out ahead so really I am sure this will be picked to pieces by anyone who is an expert in these fields but...

If ACT was to get 1/2 of the margin that the winning MP got over the second candidate then it would equate to about 10.33% of the vote without taking the local MP favorites away from the voting public. I did not count the Maori seats or Epsom, although the mathematicians out there wont take more than 3 or 4 minutes to figure it out.

I have also identified seats in which the margin is about 4% or less. These are the seats where competent ACT candidates should run for the seat and give it 100%. These seats are:

East Coast: Which went to National with a vote margin of 1219
Hamilton West: which went to Labour with a margin of 825
Otaki: Which went to Labour with a margin of only 382 votes
Rotorua: Went to Labour with a margin of only 662 votes
Taupo: Labour with a margin of 1285 votes
and
Tauranga which should be left to National's Simon Bridges who will make a brilliant MP.
(margin 730)

So taking Tauranga out of it, and adding Epsom for Rodney there are 6 electorates in NZ in the forthcoming election that ACT should seriously have a go at. Along with 1 in ten people voting for ACT with a Party vote getting about 10% or slightly more then ACT are in a serious position to make a difference in NZ. The public of NZ are looking for a change and are slightly weary of the two main parties. This would provide a change for the better for all New Zealander's and would give National weary supporters strength in knowing that effective cousin ACT is there for stability and verification.

I have mentioned to Rodney a way that I think will get as much as 15-20%+ of the party vote. Time will tell if ACT use that idea..... If I can take a page out of Sen Barack's book I would have to agree and say that it is time for change. If National get over a 50% majority will that necessarily make for a better NZ, or will it make for a regime that makes all of the decisions as they please without being checked on the consequences? Time will tell.